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Read Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years 107 ✓ [Download] ➺ Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty Years Author Vaclav Smil – Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways as a fatal discontinuity a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing or as Fundamental change occurs most often in one and Trends eBook #10003 of two ways as a fatal discontinuity Global Catastrophes MOBI #204 a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing or as a persistent gradual trend Catastrophes and Trends eBook #10003 Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions viral pandemics wars and large scale terrorist attacks trends are Catastrophes and Trends The Next Kindle demographic environmental economic and political shifts that unfold over time In this provocative book scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide ranging int. Vaclav Smil is a very intelligent man This book is food for thought for any person who thinks about the future All scenarios are examined and the probabilities weighed Geophysical geopolitical So what should we be worried about Global warming Asteroid collision Islamic fundamentalists Perhaps none of them because the author shows how similar predictions and fears have been very wrong In the 1970s the fear was global cooling But he does point out some possibilities that are grosly overlooked today Such as pandemics caused by unknown poathogens or the resistance to antibiotics by bacteria Nitrogen release due to fertilizer abuse releasing NO2 which is potent a greenhouse gas that C02 Asian countries completely ignoring the fact that the water tables are falling to a degree where the popoulation is in grave danger Soil erosion Deforestisation Degradation of the biosphere and the loss of biodiversity The acidification of the oceans and the subseuent breakdown of the total oceanic ecosystem Bees their demise and the symbiosis with humanityChina and India he does not see as becoming huge superpowers but the decline of the USA is problematic Global warming Perhaps but we as humans do adaptThere is no alternative so far to using fossil fuels for electricity production Renewable energy simply cannoy be built on such a scale No great predictions only evidence Things will change Eurabia a nuclear weapons accident or a war transformational war between India and PakistanI learnt some history too The Taipeng uprising in 1859 caused 50 million deaths and took China out of the game for 150 years That was worldchanging and I had never heard of it Had you

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Erdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to and plan for the conseuences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long term trendsSmil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events both natural and human produced then at trends of global importance the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources demographic and political shifts in Europe Japan Russia China the United States and Islamic nations the battle for glo. Vaclav Smil goes into depth in regards to various environmental biological and even political disasters that are likely to happen by 2050 He exclaims with certainty that we are in a high risk zone for experiencing a catastrophic viral pandemic between 2009 and 2021 check stating the infection rate will be at least 20% of the population He thinks that we are at risk for major changes to our climate citing that we're intensifying the global water cycle resulting in precipitation The southern United States will experience destructive flooding and the western United States may have longer wildfires Interestingly enough it is likely that we'll face freuent and deadly heatwaves and water shortages worldwide By 2050 23rds of humanity will live in cities definitely making this slow catastrophe Smil does not think we're paying enough attention to the nitrogen and water cycles though and instead we as a society put fear into low probability events like terrorism because of it's worldwide impacts referencing 911 This is definitely true and we the US allocated enormous funds to ineffectively combat this This book was well written Smil touched on just about every threat we could face in the next half century At the beginning you'd think he'd list the catastrophes and their likeliness of happening or rank of importance but through reading you realize there are so many factors that go into what disasters and hazards could happen as well as the collateral damage caused by those throughout the world We can predict but even scientists have a limited knowledge on all of these things Classifying events as catastrophes and rating them all comes down to what society values and fears We shift significance and concern throughout time so it's impossible to conclude what we'd value as a disaster in 2050 He writes that we need to act as risk minimizers and urges people to focus on global warming Despite not ranking humanity's biggest threats it seems that this is his top concern based on the detail it was given Though it was written in 2008 it was enjoyable to review how some of the things Smil predicted either have happened or are close to happening in the coming decades He ends with how resilient humanity is; we have the ability to cope and change uite often with whatever comes our way Overall it was a very informative read

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Global Catastrophes and Trends The Next Fifty YearsBal primacy and growing economic and social ineuality He also considers environmental change in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom and gloom scenarios or techno euphoria Instead relying on long term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastroph. I bought the book looking for some serious material on fatal discontinuities catastrophes to get a better uantitive understanding of the current corona virus situation So the book has 3 main components first part of catastrophes mainly natural second part on ongoing trends mainly geopolitical third part on global warming The first part does worth the price of the book it contains a lot of numbers and excellent academic references and helps navigating risks of future natural calamities Highly suggested the section on influenza pandemics The second part is not as interesting as political and obviously prone to partisan interpretations Prof Smil is very knowledgeable but politics and geopolitics are not his main fields The third part is specifically dedicated to climate change and provides a wealth of data and numbers Interesting tooIn the end the book is a good read if you are looking for solid data on natural catastrophes and global warming If you are interested in geopolitics I'd complement this book with some political books